Defensive Growth Roadmap for Open Source TechCo

Context

Top-5 global open source tech company heavily dependent on search revenue. Engaged late 2023 to assess LLM disruption risk and develop a response strategy.

Challenge

Large language models were threatening the company's core search revenue model. Needed to quantify the impact and build a strategy that preserved value during the transition.

Approach

• 01Deep analysis of LLM market: at the time, LLMs primarily used for information gathering while revenue-generating commercial searches were less impacted
• 02Modeled expected impact: ~25% decline in paid search volume, ~20% revenue decline due to user mix shift
• 03Recommended aggressive cross-selling of underutilized products (e.g., mailing client) to existing user base
• 04Recommended building own LLM capability to own the search experience and serve ads within AI interactions
• 05Built scenario models to quantify revenue stabilization potential across multiple strategic pathways